Global Trend Watch
S & P 500 (SPY) Multiple Time-frame Market Analysis
Summary on the SPY:
- Bullish on SPY on the Daily and Weekly time-frame.
- Trend has been in place for an extended period.
- Resistance at 117.5 broken on the daily chart (Fibonacci 61.8%).
- Potential Resistance at 120 (A & B Bands).
- Watching VIX to confirm market trend continuation.
Volatility Index (VIX) Multiple Time-frame Market Analysis
Summary on the VIX:
- Resistance at the 16 level being tested on Weekly, Daily & Intra-day time-frame
- Bear Confirmed on Williams %R (Dly,Wkly,Mthly)
- Watching VIX closely to see if market can break the 16 level on the VIX.
Note:
Stay tuned next week for an extended Stock Market Analysis including the ASX and selected commodities and currencies
Your applying technical analysis/trend following techniques to the vol of vol – which is far from optimal for a process that exhibits heteroscedasticity.
Hi Mugen,
I assume your implying that the VIX is “heteroscedasticity” (random values), and applying technical analysis to this index is not ideal.
I don’t believe the VIX is random, it does trend and how it behaves can tell me a lot about the Market in general.
There are other things (other than conventional technical analysis) I look at with the VIX, that weren’t covered in the video for obvious reasons. 😉
I will cover more indexes in my market analysis next week.
Cheers,
Cade
You must of briefly googled it – because “heteroscedasticity” means the “random variables” have different conditional variances.
Volatility has long term mean reversion characteristics, so is often modeled by professionals as close to stationary data.
Most don’t trade the VIX as a directional play – its either hedges or bets on VBI term structure – so support and resistance analysis is not the same as you would for equity/index.
These are only my opinion…