Global Trend Traders

Stock Market Analysis- 9th of April 2010

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in Feature, Free, Stock Market Analysis

Global Trend Watch

S & P 500 (SPY) Multiple Time-frame Market Analysis

[youtube width=”640″ height=”505″]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=SPsi1UVF2AM[/youtube]

Summary on the SPY:

Bullish on SPY on the Daily and Weekly time-frame.
Trend has been in place for an extended period.
Resistance at 117.5 broken on the daily chart (Fibonacci 61.8%).
Potential Resistance at 120 (A & B Bands).
Watching VIX to confirm market trend continuation.

Volatility Index (VIX) Multiple Time-frame Market Analysis

[youtube width=”640″ height=”505″]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=yUu9Lf_da3Q[/youtube]

Summary on the VIX:

Resistance at the 16 level being tested on Weekly, Daily & Intra-day time-frame
Bear Confirmed on Williams %R (Dly,Wkly,Mthly)
Watching VIX closely to see if market can break the 16 level on the VIX.

Note:

Stay tuned next week for an extended Stock Market Analysis including the ASX and selected commodities and currencies

Stock Market Analysis

Comments

3 responses to “Stock Market Analysis- 9th of April 2010”

mugen

April 13, 2010

Your applying technical analysis/trend following techniques to the vol of vol – which is far from optimal for a process that exhibits heteroscedasticity.

Reply
1. Trend Hunter
  
  April 13, 2010
  
  Hi Mugen,
  I assume your implying that the VIX is “heteroscedasticity” (random values), and applying technical analysis to this index is not ideal.
  I don’t believe the VIX is random, it does trend and how it behaves can tell me a lot about the Market in general.
  There are other things (other than conventional technical analysis) I look at with the VIX, that weren’t covered in the video for obvious reasons. 😉
  I will cover more indexes in my market analysis next week.
  Cheers,
  Cade
  
  Reply
mugen

April 13, 2010

You must of briefly googled it – because “heteroscedasticity” means the “random variables” have different conditional variances.
Volatility has long term mean reversion characteristics, so is often modeled by professionals as close to stationary data.
Most don’t trade the VIX as a directional play – its either hedges or bets on VBI term structure – so support and resistance analysis is not the same as you would for equity/index.

These are only my opinion…

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